The Role of external powers in shaping middle eastern conflict

Introduction

            The Middle East, a region rich in history, culture, and resources, has long been a crucible of conflict, where local struggles intertwine with the ambitions of global powers. From the colonial mandates of the early 20th century to the geopolitical rivalries of today, external forces have played a pivotal role in shaping the region’s political landscape, fueling tensions, and influencing the trajectory of its conflicts. Whether through military interventions, economic leverage, or diplomatic maneuvering, foreign powers have left an indelible mark on the Middle East, often amplifying divisions and complicating paths to peace. This article explores the intricate and often controversial role of external actors in driving conflict and shaping the region’s future, inviting us to question: whose interests are truly served, and at what cost to the people of the Middle East?

1.      Historical Influence of Colonial Powers

The Historical Influence of Colonial Power in the Middle East

            The Middle East, a region encompassing modern-day countries such as Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Palestine, and the Arabian Peninsula, has been profoundly shaped by colonial powers, particularly from the 19th to mid-20th centuries. European colonial influence, primarily from Britain and France, alongside earlier Ottoman rule and later American involvement, left lasting political, social, economic, and cultural impacts.

Pre-Colonial Context: The Ottoman Empire

            Before European colonial intervention, the Middle East was largely under the control of the Ottoman Empire (1299–1922), a vast Islamic empire that governed diverse populations across the region. The Ottomans administered the region through a system of millets, granting religious communities limited autonomy, which allowed for cultural and religious diversity but also entrenched communal divisions. By the 19th century, the Ottoman Empire was weakening due to internal stagnation, economic challenges, and external pressures from European powers, earning it the moniker "the sick man of Europe".

            European powers capitalized on this decline, using economic penetration and political influence to extend their reach. The Capitulations, trade agreements granting European merchants favorable terms, and the establishment of foreign consulates eroded Ottoman sovereignty. This set the stage for direct colonial intervention in the 19th and 20th centuries.

Early Colonial Encroachment (19th Century)

·         British and French Economic Penetration

            The 19th century marked the beginning of significant European influence in the Middle East, driven by economic and strategic interests. Britain sought to secure trade routes to India, particularly through Egypt and the Persian Gulf, while France pursued cultural and economic dominance in the Levant (Syria and Lebanon). The construction of the Suez Canal (1859–1869), largely financed by France and later controlled by Britain, was a pivotal moment, as it transformed Egypt into a critical node in global trade.

            In 1839, the Ottoman Empire's Tanzimat reforms, aimed at modernizing the state, inadvertently opened the door to greater European influence by adopting Western legal and economic systems. European powers extended loans to the Ottomans, leading to debt dependency. By 1875, the Ottoman Empire defaulted on its loans, resulting in the establishment of the Ottoman Public Debt Administration, controlled by European creditors, which further undermined Ottoman sovereignty.

·         Egypt Under British Control

            Egypt exemplifies early colonial influence. After the Napoleonic invasion (1798–1801), France briefly occupied Egypt, introducing modern administrative practices but also sparking resistance. By 1882, Britain occupied Egypt to protect its interests in the Suez Canal following a nationalist uprising led by Ahmed Urabi. The British established a "veiled protectorate," maintaining nominal Ottoman rule but exerting de facto control over Egypt’s administration and economy until 1922.

World War I and the Dismantling of the Ottoman Empire

            The turning point for colonial influence in the Middle East came during World War I (1914–1918), when the Ottoman Empire allied with Germany. European powers, particularly Britain and France, sought to dismantle Ottoman control and divide the region among themselves.

·         The Sykes-Picot Agreement (1916)

            The secret Sykes-Picot Agreement between Britain and France delineated spheres of influence in the Middle East, ignoring ethnic, religious, and cultural realities. France was to control modern-day Syria and Lebanon, while Britain would dominate Iraq, Jordan, and Palestine. This agreement laid the groundwork for arbitrary borders that continue to shape regional conflicts.

·         The Balfour Declaration (1917)

            Britain’s Balfour Declaration promised a "national home for the Jewish people" in Palestine, reflecting Zionist aspirations but conflicting with earlier promises of Arab independence made in the McMahon-Hussein Correspondence (1915–1916). This contradiction sowed seeds of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as colonial powers prioritized strategic interests over local aspirations.

The Arab Revolt and Promises of Independence

            Britain supported the Arab Revolt (1916–1918), led by Sharif Hussein of Mecca, against the Ottomans, promising Arab independence in return. However, the Sykes-Picot Agreement and Balfour Declaration betrayed these promises, leading to widespread distrust of colonial powers among Arabs.

The Mandate System (1920–1948)

            After World War I, the League of Nations formalized colonial control through the mandate system, granting Britain and France authority over former Ottoman territories under the guise of preparing them for self-governance.

·         British Mandates: Iraq, Palestine, and Transjordan

            In Iraq, Britain faced resistance, notably the 1920 Iraqi Revolt, which forced a shift from direct rule to indirect control through a Hashemite monarchy. Iraq gained nominal independence in 1932 but remained under British influence through military bases and economic agreements.

            In Palestine, the British mandate (1920–1948) struggled to balance Jewish immigration and Arab nationalist demands. The 1936–1939 Arab Revolt and subsequent British policies, such as the 1939 White Paper limiting Jewish immigration, failed to resolve tensions, culminating in the 1948 establishment of Israel and the displacement of Palestinians.

            Transjordan (modern Jordan) was relatively stable under British oversight, with the Hashemite Emir Abdullah maintaining order until independence in 1946.

·         French Mandates: Syria and Lebanon

            France’s mandates in Syria and Lebanon were marked by divide-and-rule tactics. In Lebanon, France favored Maronite Christians, shaping a confessional political system that persists today. In Syria, France faced repeated uprisings, such as the 1925 Great Syrian Revolt, which it brutally suppressed. Both countries gained independence in the 1940s, but French policies left fragmented political structures.

2. Cold War Dynamics and Superpower Rivalries

Cold War Dynamics and Superpower Rivalries in the Middle East

            The Cold War (1947–1991), a period of ideological and geopolitical rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, profoundly shaped the Middle East. The region became a critical arena for superpower competition due to its strategic location, vast oil reserves, and emerging nationalist movements. The United States and the Soviet Union, alongside their allies, vied for influence through military aid, economic assistance, and proxy conflicts, leaving lasting political, social, and economic impacts.

·         The Middle East in the Early Cold War

            The Middle East’s geopolitical significance emerged as European colonial powers (Britain and France) withdrew after World War II, creating a power vacuum that the U.S. and USSR sought to fill. The region’s proximity to Europe, control of critical waterways (e.g., Suez Canal, Persian Gulf), and oil wealth made it a focal point for superpower competition. The Cold War’s ideological divide—capitalism versus communism—intersected with local dynamics, including Arab nationalism, Zionism, and Islamic revivalism, complicating the region’s politics.

·         The Truman Doctrine and Early U.S. Involvement

            The U.S. signaled its intent to counter Soviet influence in the Middle East with the Truman Doctrine (1947), which promised aid to nations resisting communism. In the Middle East, this initially targeted Greece and Turkey, but its implications extended to Iran and other states. The U.S. viewed the region as vital to containing Soviet expansion, particularly after the USSR’s attempts to gain influence in Iran during the 1946 Azerbaijan Crisis.

·         Soviet Ambitions

            The Soviet Union sought to exploit anti-colonial sentiments and support leftist movements to counter Western influence. It provided military and economic aid to governments and revolutionary groups, particularly in Egypt, Syria, and Iraq, aligning with Arab nationalist leaders who opposed Western dominance.

Key Cold War Flashpoints in the Middle East

·         The Iranian Crisis and the 1953 Coup

            Iran was an early Cold War battleground. After World War II, the USSR supported separatist movements in northern Iran, prompting U.S. and British intervention to secure Allied interests. The 1951 nationalization of Iran’s oil industry by Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, which threatened Western oil companies, led to the CIA-orchestrated Operation Ajax in 1953. The coup ousted Mossadegh and restored Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, cementing U.S. influence but fueling anti-American sentiment.

·         The Suez Crisis (1956)

            The 1956 Suez Crisis was a pivotal moment. Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal, challenging British and French interests. The USSR supported Nasser, providing arms and funding for the Aswan Dam after the U.S. withdrew support. Britain, France, and Israel invaded Egypt, but U.S. opposition (fearing Soviet gains) forced their withdrawal. The crisis weakened European influence, elevated Nasser’s Pan-Arabism, and established the U.S. and USSR as dominant powers in the region.

·         The Arab-Israeli Conflict

            The Arab-Israeli conflict became a central Cold War proxy struggle. The U.S. supported Israel, providing military and economic aid, particularly after the 1967 Six-Day War, when Israel’s victory solidified its role as a U.S. ally. The Soviet Union backed Arab states, notably Egypt and Syria, supplying arms and advisors. The 1973 Yom Kippur War exemplified this rivalry, with the U.S. airlifting supplies to Israel and the USSR supporting Arab forces. The conflict’s global stakes, including the Arab oil embargo, underscored the Middle East’s role in Cold War tensions.

·         The Baghdad Pact and Regional Alliances

            The U.S. sought to contain Soviet influence through regional alliances like the Baghdad Pact (1955), which included Iraq, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, and Britain. Aimed at countering communism, the pact alienated Arab nationalists, who viewed it as neo-colonial. The Soviet Union capitalized on this discontent, forging ties with non-aligned states like Egypt and Syria. The pact’s failure after Iraq’s 1958 revolution highlighted the limits of U.S.-led alliances in the face of regional nationalism.

Superpower Proxy Wars and Regional Instability

·         The Lebanese Civil War (1975–1990)

            Lebanon became a microcosm of Cold War rivalries. The U.S. supported Maronite Christian factions and Israel, while the Soviet Union backed leftist groups and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Syria, aligned with the USSR, intervened in 1976, further complicating the conflict. U.S. involvement, including the 1983 Marine barracks bombing, underscored the risks of superpower entanglement in local conflicts.

·         The Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988)

            The Iran-Iraq War was a major Cold War proxy conflict. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran’s anti-American stance alienated the U.S., which tilted toward Iraq despite its Soviet ties. The U.S. provided Iraq with intelligence and economic aid, while the USSR supplied arms to both sides at different points. The war’s devastation weakened both nations, reshaping regional power dynamics and reinforcing U.S. influence in the Gulf.

·         Afghanistan and Soviet Intervention (1979–1989)

            The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan had significant repercussions for the Middle East. The U.S. and its allies, including Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, funneled billions in aid to mujahideen fighters, fostering Islamist movements that later influenced the region, including the rise of al-Qaeda. The conflict drained Soviet resources and emboldened U.S. dominance in the Gulf.

The End of the Cold War and Lasting Impacts

            The Cold War’s end in 1991, marked by the Soviet Union’s collapse, shifted Middle Eastern dynamics. The U.S. emerged as the dominant power, exemplified by the 1991 Gulf War, where a U.S.-led coalition expelled Iraq from Kuwait. However, Cold War interventions left enduring legacies:

• Political Instability: Arbitrary borders and superpower-backed regimes fueled authoritarianism and sectarian tensions, evident in Iraq and Syria.
• Rise of Islamism: U.S. support for mujahideen in Afghanistan contributed to the growth of militant groups, influencing regional terrorism.
• U.S. Hegemony: The U.S. maintained a strong presence through military bases and alliances, particularly with Israel and Saudi Arabia, shaping post-Cold War conflicts.
• Iran’s Isolation: The U.S.’s containment of Iran after 1979 set the stage for ongoing tensions, including Iran’s pursuit of regional influence.

3. Post-Cold War Interventions and Regime Change 

            The end of the Cold War in 1991 marked a shift in the Middle East from a bipolar superpower rivalry to a unipolar order dominated by the United States. Post-Cold War interventions, particularly by the U.S. and its allies, alongside regime changes, profoundly reshaped the region’s political landscapes, fueling insurgency, sectarian violence, and widespread instability.

The Post-Cold War Context

            The collapse of the Soviet Union left the U.S. as the sole superpower, enabling it to pursue strategic interests in the Middle East, including securing oil resources, containing Iran, and supporting Israel. The region’s strategic importance persisted due to its energy reserves and proximity to global trade routes. However, interventions often ignored local complexities—ethnic, sectarian, and political divisions rooted in colonial legacies and Cold War policies—leading to unintended consequences.

Key Interventions and Regime Changes

The Gulf War (1990–1991)

            The 1991 Gulf War, triggered by Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, was a defining moment. A U.S.-led coalition expelled Iraqi forces, reinforcing U.S. dominance and establishing military bases in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. The war weakened Saddam Hussein’s regime but left it intact, imposing harsh sanctions and no-fly zones that devastated Iraq’s economy and infrastructure. These measures fueled internal dissent, particularly among Shia and Kurdish populations, but U.S. reluctance to support uprisings (e.g., the 1991 Shia and Kurdish rebellions) entrenched sectarian divisions and resentment.

The Iraq Invasion (2003) and Regime Change

            The 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, justified by claims of weapons of mass destruction and ties to terrorism, toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime. The invasion, part of the U.S.’s post-9/11 “War on Terror,” had profound consequences:

• Political Vacuum and Sectarianism: The U.S. dismantled Iraq’s Ba’athist state apparatus and military through de-Ba’athification and disbandment policies, creating a power vacuum. The U.S.-backed transitional government favored Shia and Kurdish groups, alienating Sunnis and fueling sectarian tensions. The Shia-dominated government, led by figures like Nouri al-Maliki, marginalized Sunnis, sowing seeds for insurgency.
• Insurgency and Al-Qaeda in Iraq: The invasion sparked a Sunni insurgency, with groups like Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) exploiting grievances. AQI’s attacks on U.S. forces and Shia civilians escalated sectarian violence, culminating in near-civil war by 2006–2007. The U.S. “surge” (2007–2008) temporarily reduced violence by arming Sunni tribes (the Awakening Councils), but underlying tensions persisted.
• Rise of ISIS: The power vacuum and sectarian policies enabled the emergence of the Islamic State (ISIS) from AQI’s remnants. By 2014, ISIS seized large parts of Iraq and Syria, exploiting Sunni disenfranchisement and weak governance. Its brutal campaign intensified sectarian violence and destabilized the region.

Afghanistan and Regional Spillover (2001–2021)

            The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, following the 9/11 attacks, aimed to dismantle Al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban. While not in the Middle East proper, the intervention had regional impacts. U.S. support for anti-Taliban factions and the establishment of a weak central government in Kabul created opportunities for Islamist militancy to spread. The war drove Al-Qaeda operatives into Pakistan and the Middle East, contributing to the growth of jihadist networks in Iraq and Syria.

·         The Arab Spring and Interventions (2011–Present)

            The Arab Spring uprisings, beginning in 2011, challenged authoritarian regimes across the Middle East, prompting varied Western interventions that reshaped political landscapes:

• Libya (2011): NATO’s intervention, led by the U.S., France, and Britain, supported rebels in overthrowing Muammar Gaddafi. The regime’s collapse left Libya fragmented, with rival militias and jihadist groups, including ISIS, filling the power vacuum. The ensuing chaos destabilized North Africa and fueled arms trafficking across the region.
• Syria (2011–Present): The Syrian uprising against Bashar al-Assad escalated into a civil war, drawing multiple interventions. The U.S. supported moderate rebels and Kurdish forces against ISIS, while Russia and Iran backed Assad, prolonging the conflict. Sectarian divisions—Alawite, Sunni, and Shia—intensified, with groups like Hezbollah and Sunni jihadists exacerbating violence. The war displaced millions and destabilized neighboring Lebanon and Jordan.
• Yemen (2015–Present): The Saudi-led, U.S.-backed intervention in Yemen’s civil war against Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, deepened sectarian (Sunni-Shia) and humanitarian crises. The conflict destabilized the Arabian Peninsula, empowering Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and fueling regional rivalries.

Political Landscape Transformations

·         Weakened State Structures

            Interventions often dismantled state institutions, as seen in Iraq and Libya, leading to fragmented governance. In Iraq, the U.S.-imposed political system prioritized sectarian quotas over merit, undermining national cohesion. In Libya, the absence of a centralized authority after Gaddafi’s fall allowed tribal and militia-based governance to dominate.

·         Rise of Non-State Actors

The collapse of state authority empowered non-state actors, including jihadist groups (ISIS, Al-Qaeda) and sectarian militias (e.g., Shia Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, Hezbollah in Syria). These groups filled governance gaps, providing services and security but also perpetuating violence and challenging state sovereignty.

·         Authoritarian Resilience and Democratic Setbacks

            While the Arab Spring raised hopes for democracy, interventions often reinforced authoritarianism. In Syria, Russian and Iranian support enabled Assad’s survival. In Egypt, the 2013 military coup, tacitly supported by the U.S. and Gulf allies, ousted the elected Muslim Brotherhood government, restoring military rule under Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. These outcomes stifled democratic aspirations and fueled discontent.

Insurgency and Sectarian Violence

·         Insurgency Dynamics

            Post-Cold War interventions created fertile ground for insurgencies. In Iraq, Sunni disenfranchisement and foreign occupation sparked resistance, with groups like AQI evolving into ISIS. In Syria, the civil war’s chaos allowed jihadist groups to thrive. Foreign interventions, including U.S. and Russian airstrikes, often radicalized populations, driving recruitment to insurgent groups.

·         Sectarian Polarization

            Sectarian violence surged as interventions exacerbated Sunni-Shia divides. In Iraq, U.S. policies empowered Shia groups, alienating Sunnis and fueling sectarian clashes. In Syria, Iran’s support for Assad’s Alawite regime and Saudi backing of Sunni rebels deepened divisions. The Saudi-Iran rivalry, intensified by U.S. and Russian interventions, turned local conflicts into regional sectarian proxy wars.

·         Humanitarian and Regional Instability

            Interventions caused massive displacement, with millions of refugees fleeing Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, straining neighboring countries like Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. The refugee crisis fueled anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe and destabilized host nations. Economic devastation, infrastructure collapse, and weakened governance further entrenched instability.

Long-Term Regional Impacts

·         U.S. Hegemony and Regional Pushback

            The U.S.’s post-Cold War dominance, through military bases and alliances with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, shaped the region but provoked resistance. Anti-American sentiment grew due to perceived imperialism, particularly after Iraq’s invasion. Iran capitalized on this, expanding its influence through proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis.

·         Rise of Regional Powers

The weakening of traditional Arab powers (Iraq, Syria, Libya) shifted influence to non-Arab states like Iran and Turkey. Iran’s support for Shia militias and Assad’s regime positioned it as a major player, while Turkey’s interventions in Syria and Libya reflected its neo-Ottoman ambitions.

·         Persistent Instability

            The combination of regime changes, insurgencies, and sectarian violence left the Middle East fragmented. Weak states, porous borders, and empowered militias created a cycle of conflict, with groups like ISIS continuing to exploit instability even after territorial losses.

4. Contemporary Geopolitical Competition and Proxy Wars

            The Middle East has been a focal point of geopolitical competition and proxy wars in the 21st century, particularly since the Arab Spring (2011) and the decline of U.S. dominance after the Iraq War. Contemporary rivalries, involving regional powers like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel, alongside global actors such as the United States, Russia, and China, have reshaped the region’s political landscape. These competitions, often waged through proxy conflicts, have fueled instability, sectarianism, and new power alignments, complicating governance and exacerbating humanitarian crises.

Context of Contemporary Geopolitical Competition

            The post-Cold War era initially saw U.S. hegemony in the Middle East, but the 2003 Iraq invasion and the Arab Spring uprisings disrupted this order. The U.S.’s partial withdrawal from the region, notably after the Iraq troop drawdown (2011) and the Afghanistan exit (2021), created space for regional and global powers to assert influence (Lynch, 2016). The rise of non-state actors, such as ISIS and Hezbollah, and the intensification of Iran-Saudi rivalry have turned the Middle East into a battleground for proxy wars, where local conflicts reflect broader geopolitical struggles.

Major Actors and Their Strategies

·         Iran: Expanding the "Axis of Resistance"

            Iran has emerged as a dominant regional power, leveraging its “Axis of Resistance”—a network of allied militias and governments, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Houthi rebels in Yemen. Iran’s strategy combines ideological (Shia-centric) and pragmatic goals, aiming to counter Saudi and U.S. influence while securing regional hegemony. Its support for proxies has fueled conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, reshaping local politics by empowering Shia factions and challenging Sunni-dominated regimes.

·         Saudi Arabia: Countering Iran and Asserting Sunni Leadership

            Saudi Arabia, backed by the U.S., seeks to maintain its leadership in the Sunni Arab world and contain Iran’s influence. Its interventions, notably in Yemen (2015–present) and support for anti-Assad rebels in Syria, reflect a strategy of countering Iran through military and financial means. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also aims to diversify its economy and project soft power, influencing regional politics through economic leverage.

·         Turkey: Neo-Ottoman Ambitions

            Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has pursued a neo-Ottoman foreign policy, seeking to restore its historical influence. Turkey’s interventions in Syria (supporting anti-Assad rebels and countering Kurdish forces), Libya (backing the Government of National Accord), and Iraq (targeting PKK militants) reflect its aim to shape regional politics and secure economic interests, such as energy routes. Turkey’s balancing act between NATO, Russia, and regional actors has made it a pivotal player.

·         Israel: Security and Regional Normalization

            Israel has focused on countering Iran’s influence, particularly its nuclear program and proxies like Hezbollah. Its airstrikes in Syria and covert operations against Iranian targets underscore this priority. The Abraham Accords (2020), normalizing ties with the UAE, Bahrain, and others, reflect Israel’s strategy to build an anti-Iran coalition with U.S. support, reshaping regional alliances and sidelining the Palestinian issue.

·         United States: Selective Engagement

            The U.S. has shifted from direct intervention to selective engagement, focusing on counterterrorism, oil security, and supporting allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Its pivot to Asia and reduced military presence have allowed rivals like Russia and China to gain influence. The U.S.’s role in the Abraham Accords and its continued arms sales to Gulf states sustain its influence, but its reluctance to fully engage in conflicts like Syria has ceded ground to other powers.

·         Russia: Reasserting Influence

            Russia’s intervention in Syria (2015–present) to prop up Assad’s regime marked its return as a Middle Eastern power. By securing military bases and aligning with Iran, Russia has challenged U.S. dominance and positioned itself as a mediator in conflicts like Libya. Its pragmatic alliances with Turkey and Gulf states further amplify its influence.

·         China: Economic and Diplomatic Expansion

            China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has expanded its economic footprint in the Middle East, with investments in infrastructure and energy in countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. China’s non-interventionist stance and mediation efforts, such as brokering the 2023 Iran-Saudi rapprochement, position it as a neutral alternative to Western powers, reshaping regional diplomacy.

Key Proxy Wars and Their Impacts

·         Syrian Civil War (2011–Present)

            The Syrian conflict is a microcosm of contemporary geopolitical competition. Russia and Iran’s support for Assad, including military and financial aid, ensured his regime’s survival, while the U.S., Turkey, and Gulf states backed various rebel groups. Israel’s airstrikes targeted Iranian and Hezbollah assets. The war fragmented Syria, empowered non-state actors like the Kurdish YPG and ISIS, and displaced millions, destabilizing Lebanon and Jordan. The conflict entrenched sectarian (Alawite vs. Sunni) and geopolitical divides, with Russia and Iran gaining strategic footholds.

·         Yemen Civil War (2015–Present)

            The Yemen conflict pits the Saudi-led coalition, supported by the U.S., against Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The war has devastated Yemen, causing a humanitarian crisis with over 4 million displaced and widespread famines. The Houthis’ attacks on Saudi infrastructure and UAE’s withdrawal from the coalition highlight the conflict’s regional impact. The war has strengthened Iran’s position and emboldened non-state actors like Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

·         Iraq: Sectarian and Proxy Struggles

            Post-2003 Iraq remains a battleground for Iran and the U.S. Iran’s influence through Shia militias (Popular Mobilization Forces) and political allies has grown, while the U.S. maintains a military presence to counter ISIS and Iran. The 2020 assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani by a U.S. drone strike escalated tensions, fueling anti-American sentiment and strengthening Iran-backed factions. Iraq’s fragile governance and sectarian divides continue to destabilize the region.

·         Libya’s Second Civil War (2014–Present)

            Libya’s conflict reflects competition among Turkey, Russia, and Gulf states. Turkey supports the UN-recognized Government of National Unity, while Russia and the UAE back Khalifa Haftar’s forces. The conflict has fragmented Libya, fueled arms trafficking, and destabilized North Africa, with Turkey and Russia gaining influence through mercenary deployments and energy deals.

Political Landscape Transformations

·         Fragmentation and Weak Governance

            Proxy wars have weakened state institutions, as seen in Syria, Yemen, and Libya, where competing militias and foreign-backed factions undermine central authority. In Iraq, Iran’s influence over Shia militias challenges the government’s sovereignty. Weak governance has enabled non-state actors to provide services, further eroding state legitimacy.

·         Sectarian Polarization

            The Iran-Saudi rivalry has intensified Sunni-Shia divides, with proxy wars in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq exacerbating sectarian violence. Iran’s support for Shia groups and Saudi backing of Sunni factions have deepened communal tensions, undermining national cohesion and fueling insurgencies like ISIS.

·         New Alliances and Normalization

            The Abraham Accords and Turkey’s outreach to Gulf states reflect shifting alliances. Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s warming ties with Israel, driven by shared concerns over Iran, have marginalized the Palestinian issue. Meanwhile, China’s mediation and Turkey’s pragmatic diplomacy have created new alignments, reducing U.S. dominance.

Insurgency and Instability

·         Rise of Jihadist and Militia Groups

            Proxy wars have empowered jihadist groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda, which exploit chaos in Syria, Yemen, and Libya. Iran-backed militias, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, have also gained prominence, acting as state-like entities with significant military and political clout. These groups perpetuate instability by challenging state authority and fueling sectarian violence.

·         Humanitarian Crises and Regional Spillover

            Proxy conflicts have caused massive displacement, with over 13 million refugees and internally displaced persons from Syria alone, straining Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey. Yemen’s famine and Libya’s lawlessness have regional repercussions, including migration to Europe and arms proliferation. These crises destabilize neighboring states and fuel anti-Western sentiment.

·         Economic Disruption

            Geopolitical competition has disrupted energy markets and trade routes. Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and Syria’s collapse have affected global oil prices, while Turkey’s control of Libyan energy assets has shifted economic power. China’s BRI investments have further altered economic dynamics, tying Middle Eastern states to its orbit.

Long-Term Implications

·         Decline of U.S. Influence

            The U.S.’s selective engagement and perceived failures in Iraq and Afghanistan have diminished its credibility, allowing Russia, China, and regional powers to fill the void. The 2023 Iran-Saudi deal, brokered by China, underscores this shift, signaling a multipolar Middle East.

·         Regional Power Dynamics

            Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia’s competition has created a fragmented region, with no single hegemon. Israel’s normalization with Arab states and Turkey’s balancing act between East and West have further complicated alliances. The rise of non-state actors as political and military forces challenges traditional state-centric models.

·         Persistent Instability

            Proxy wars and geopolitical rivalries have entrenched instability, with weak states, sectarian divides, and empowered militias creating a cycle of conflict. The lack of inclusive governance and unresolved conflicts, such as the Palestinian issue, ensure ongoing volatility.

Conclusion

            The role of external powers in shaping Middle Eastern conflicts is a multifaceted phenomenon that underscores the interplay of global geopolitics and regional dynamics. Historical interventions, from colonial mandates to Cold War rivalries, have left enduring structural and ideological imprints on the region, often exacerbating ethnic, sectarian, and political divisions. In the contemporary era, the involvement of global powers through military engagements, economic influence, and proxy warfare has further complicated the path to stability, frequently prioritizing strategic interests over local aspirations. This analysis reveals that external interventions, while occasionally stabilizing in the short term, have often perpetuated cycles of conflict by undermining sovereignty and fostering dependency. Future research must focus on the long-term consequences of such interventions and explore pathways for empowering regional actors to forge sustainable resolutions. By critically examining the legacy and ongoing impact of external powers, scholars and policymakers can better address the root causes of instability and contribute to a more equitable geopolitical framework in the Middle East.

 

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