Background Context
Historical Dynamic: The U.S.-Russia-China triangle has been shaped by shifting alliances and rivalries. During the Cold War, President Richard Nixon’s 1972 visit to China capitalized on the Sino-Soviet split to align the U.S. with China against the Soviet Union. Today, Trump’s strategy appears to aim for a "reverse Nixon," seeking to align with Russia to counterbalance China, which the U.S. views as its primary long-term adversary.
Russia-China Partnership: Since 2013, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have cultivated a close personal and strategic relationship, formalized in a "no limits" partnership in February 2022, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This partnership includes record-high trade ($237 billion in 2024), with China as Russia’s top buyer of oil and gas, and military cooperation like joint exercises in the South China Sea.
Trump’s Foreign Policy: Trump has expressed a desire to improve relations with Russia and end the Russia-Ukraine war swiftly, often sidelining Ukraine and European allies. His administration also views China as a significant competitor, imposing tariffs (e.g., 145% on Chinese goods) to address trade imbalances.
Key Developments Involving Putin and Trump
1. Trump’s Outreach to Russia:
-Post-Inauguration Diplomacy: Since taking office in January 2025, Trump has pursued a rapid rapprochement with Russia, a stark departure from decades of hawkish U.S. policy. This includes direct negotiations with the Kremlin to end the Russia-Ukraine war, often excluding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
-Phone Calls and Meetings: Trump reportedly spoke with Putin on November 7, 2024, warning against escalation in Ukraine and emphasizing U.S. military presence in Europe. While the Kremlin denied this call, subsequent interactions, including a call after the release of U.S. citizen Marc Fogel from Russian detention, suggest ongoing communication. Trump described a call with Putin as “lengthy and highly productive,” covering Ukraine and the Middle East, indicating Russia’s role as a global player in his view.
-Policy Shifts: Trump’s administration has paused intelligence and military aid to Ukraine, halted a federal initiative to combat Russian influence campaigns, and stopped offensive cyber operations against Russia. These moves signal a pivot away from supporting Kyiv and toward normalizing ties with Moscow.
-Ukraine Negotiations: Trump has pushed for a quick ceasefire in Ukraine, reportedly offering Russia territorial concessions (e.g., Crimea and eastern regions) and demanding Ukraine compensate the U.S. for past aid with mineral resources. This approach has drawn criticism for sidelining Ukraine and echoing historical betrayals like the 1938 Munich Agreement.
-Sanctions and Leverage: Trump has suggested imposing new sanctions on Russia if Putin does not agree to a peace deal, though his first term saw tougher sanctions than those under Obama or Biden. Conversely, he has proposed lifting sanctions if Russia agrees to terms favorable to U.S. interests, potentially weakening Western isolation of Russia.
2. Putin’s Response:
-Strategic Alignment: Putin has welcomed Trump’s overtures, seeing them as a chance to normalize U.S.-Russia relations and reduce Western sanctions. However, he remains cautious, prioritizing Russia’s economic dependence on China and avoiding major concessions in Ukraine without securing territorial gains or ending Western support for Kyiv.
-Public Statements: Putin has flattered Trump, calling him a “courageous man” and expressing openness to proposals for restoring ties. Yet, he insists on a long-term peace in Ukraine that prioritizes Russia’s interests, rejecting a short-term ceasefire.
-Military Posturing: In response to Trump’s moves, such as repositioning U.S. submarines closer to Russia, Putin has engaged in joint military exercises with China, signaling that Russia will not easily abandon its alliance with Beijing.
China’s Role as a Third Party
1. China’s Stance on U.S.-Russia Relations:
-Public Support: Beijing has publicly welcomed improved U.S.-Russia relations, with the Chinese Foreign Ministry stating in July 2025 that it supports a potential Trump-Putin meeting, possibly in Beijing. This stance aligns with China’s broader goal of reducing global tensions while maintaining its strategic partnership with Russia.
-Strategic Concerns: Despite public support, Beijing is wary of Trump’s efforts to drive a wedge between China and Russia. A successful U.S.-Russia alignment could shift U.S. military focus to the Indo-Pacific, increasing pressure on China over issues like Taiwan.
-Xi’s Diplomacy: In a February 2025 video call with Putin, Xi reaffirmed their “no limits” partnership, calling Russia a “true friend” and dismissing speculation of a rift. Xi also discussed a call with Trump about TikTok, trade, and Taiwan, indicating China’s intent to maintain open channels with both leaders.
2. China’s Leverage Over Russia:
-Economic Dependence: Russia relies heavily on China for trade, particularly energy exports, which account for a significant portion of its economy under Western sanctions. China’s supply of industrial equipment and computer chips (90% of Russia’s industry needs) further cements this dependence.
-Diplomatic Influence: China has positioned itself as a potential mediator in Ukraine, offering to host peace talks. However, its initiatives, like the 2023 peace principles, are seen as efforts to reduce European pressure rather than genuine mediation, given China’s support for Russia’s war efforts.
-Military Cooperation: Joint military exercises, such as maritime drills in the South China Sea and bomber patrols near Alaska, underscore the deepening China-Russia military alignment, complicating U.S. strategic planning.
3. China’s Response to Trump’s Policies:
-Trade Tensions: Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese goods have escalated U.S.-China trade disputes, prompting Beijing to retaliate with economic measures. Despite this, Trump has expressed a desire to “get along” with Xi, suggesting possible negotiations on trade imbalances.
-Geopolitical Strategy: China sees Trump’s pivot to Russia as an opportunity to strengthen ties with Europe, encouraging the EU to assert strategic autonomy and reduce reliance on the U.S. This could weaken the transatlantic alliance, benefiting Beijing.
-Taiwan and Regional Ambitions: China remains focused on its regional goals, including Taiwan’s “reunification.” Trump’s overtures to both Russia and China raise concerns in allies like Japan and India, who fear a U.S.-China deal could embolden Beijing in the Indo-Pacific.
Analysis of the “Reverse Nixon” Strategy
-Trump’s Intent: Trump’s administration, including advisors like Keith Kellogg and JD Vance, aims to disrupt Russia’s alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea by offering Moscow a deal that includes a Ukraine settlement and potential sanctions relief. This mirrors Nixon’s strategy but targets Russia instead of China.
-Challenges:
-Russia-China Bond: The deep economic and personal ties between Putin and Xi, built over 40+ meetings since 2013, make a split unlikely. Russia’s reliance on China for economic survival under sanctions and China’s need for Russia as a counterweight to the U.S. strengthen their partnership.
-Historical Differences: Unlike the Sino-Soviet split, which was fueled by ideological and territorial disputes, the current Russia-China relationship is rooted in mutual opposition to U.S. dominance. Experts argue that Trump’s approach underestimates this alignment.
-Risks for the U.S.: A U.S.-Russia deal that sacrifices Ukraine’s interests could alienate European allies, weaken NATO, and push Europe closer to China. It may also fail to sway Putin, who views Russia as a “vassal” to China militarily and economically.
-Potential Outcomes: While Trump’s strategy could yield short-term gains, such as a Ukraine ceasefire, experts warn it may backfire by empowering China. If Trump also pursues a deal with Xi (e.g., over Taiwan or trade), it could further erode U.S. global influence, leaving Russia and China to dominate their spheres unimpeded.
-Global Reactions:
-Allies’ Concerns: U.S. allies, including the Five Eyes (UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand) and Israel, are wary of Trump’s pivot, fearing intelligence leaks to Moscow.
-Indo-Pacific Implications: Allies like Japan and India are concerned about a U.S.-China deal impacting Taiwan or regional stability, while others in South Asia welcome reduced great-power tensions.
-European Pushback: Europe, sidelined by Trump’s diplomacy, may deepen ties with China to counterbalance U.S. withdrawal from Ukraine support.
Conclusion
The interactions between Putin, Trump, and China reflect a high-stakes geopolitical game. Trump’s push for a U.S.-Russia reset aims to weaken the Russia-China partnership, but the deep economic and strategic ties between Moscow and Beijing, coupled with Putin’s distrust of the U.S., make this unlikely. China, under Xi, maintains a delicate balance, supporting Russia while exploring opportunities to exploit U.S.-Europe rifts. The outcome hinges on whether Trump can secure a Ukraine deal without alienating allies or empowering China further. However, Putin’s commitment to Xi and China’s leverage over Russia suggest that any “reverse Nixon” strategy faces significant hurdles. For the latest developments, ongoing monitoring of diplomatic talks and military activities is essential.
Citations
https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-s-putin-discusses-multipolar-global-order-with-china-s-xi-hours-after-trump-inauguration-/7944498.html
https://theconversation.com/trump-xi-and-putin-a-dysfunctional-love-triangle-with-stakes-of-global-significance-243280
https://news-pravda.com/russia/2025/07/29/1551347.html
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/can-trump-split-china-and-russia
https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-trump-xi-reset-ukraine-nixon-kissinger-rapprochement/33322010.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/24/world/asia/xi-putin-call-russia-china-trump.html
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/06/trump-indo-pacific-china-india-southeast-asia-geopolitics-world-order/8u
https://theconversation.com/trumps-desire-to-un-unite-russia-and-china-is-unlikely-to-work-in-fact-it-could-well-backfire-252243
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/3/14/is-trump-trying-to-pull-putin-away-from-china-and-can-it-work